I blow at least two hours everyday checking and double checking every poll and every electoral college map I can find.  And this is what I've come up with.  There are only eight states that are legitimately in play:  New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico.  From this premise, I've developed the Kerry Victory Matrix, a handy chronological outline that will help you follow the night's events with certainty.  And I spent a little too much time at http://www.november2004.com" title="http://www.november2004.com" target="_blank"http://www.november2004.com

Ok, here we go:

First Round of Results:  Eastern Time Zone States (results at 7:0 0 CST)

1.  Kerry must win New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.  If he loses any of those, it's probably over.

2.  If he accomplishes this, look to Florida.  Florida is Bush's only real threshold state.  If Bush loses Florida, it's probably over.  If Bush somehow loses Virginia or any Southern state, it's going to be a Kerry blowout.

3.  Next, look to Ohio.  If Kerry loses Ohio and Florida, it's over.

Second Round of Results:  Central Time Zone States (results at 8:0 0 CST)

1.  Look to Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Kerry must win both of these.  Minnesota looks pretty solid for Kerry, but Wisconsin is going to be much closer.  In fact, this whole election probably rides on Wisconsin.  If Kerry wins Wisconsin, he'll be at 264 (including Washington, Oregon, and California), needing only six votes to take the election.

2.  Look to Iowa.  If Kerry wins Iowa and sweeps the Old Northwest, it's over.

Third Round of Results:  Mountain Time Zone States (results at 9:00 CST)

1.  If the polls hold up and Minnesota and Wisconsin go to Kerry, and Iowa goes to Bush, then look back to New Hampshire.  If Kerry won New Hampshire, he needs just New Mexico to win.  If Kerry lost New Hampshire, he needs: (only Iowa), or he needs (New Mexico plus four more votes).  Kerry should win New Hampshire, so we'll probably just need two more votes.

Fourth Round of Results:  Pacific Time Zone States (results at 10:00 CST)

1.  If Washington, Oregon, and California all break for Kerry, you may think it's over.  But it's not:  Assuming Kerry wins New Hampshire but loses New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa, he still needs another state. 

Aha, there's still Alaska and Hawaii!  Gore won Hawaii by 18 points in 2000!  Party time!

But hold on.  I said there were *eight* states still in play.  A poll last month had Kerry up ten in Hawaii.  But two recent polls have Bush up one---in Hawaii!

This is The Aloha Nightmare. 

Kerry needs just two more electoral votes, and Hawaii is a Democratic stronghold.  But there we'll be, on the cusp of felling the Republican Beast Elephant...and then have to wait another two hours on what should have been, in the words of George Tenet, a slam dunk.  When I first developed the Kerry Victory Matrix a couple weeks ago, I thought that this two hour period would be the Hawaii Dream, where I was going to hand out a bunch of leis, order some mixed drinks with little umbrellas, and just enjoy the moment--let the agony of the last four years melt away in a soft, warm, gentle buzz of rum and fruit juice.

But if the polls stay true, we're going to have to sit there until:

Fifth Round of Results:  The Aloha Nightmare at Midnight

Two hours of tears, pain, hope, fear, apprehension, and above all else, heavy drinking.  I already know I'm not going to be able to take it.  I'm just going to pace and drink for two hours.  Every Democrat in America is going to pace and drink (except for our hippie friends, who will already be high). 

The campaigns are already aware of The Aloha Nightmare.  Dick Cheney rallied in Hawaii last Friday--that's an exceptional trip, but that's how important this state is going to be. 

Not to be outdone, the Democrats are on the case.  And this is where it gets interesting.  Al Gore and Alexandra Kerry are headed to Hawaii to shore up support.  Imagine this scene:  Kerry 268, Bush 266, with Hawaii left to go.  Russert's hands are blue and red with dry erase marker from all the crossing out and erasing.  The clock strikes midnight.  We wait for another hour or so.  Russert's eyes bug out of his head.  Cut from commercial, and Russert has his hands around Brokaw's neck, threatening to kill him for leaving him with Brian Williams for the next six elections. 

Then, everything stops:  Cut to graphic, and Hawaii turns blue, Kerry wins the election.  NBC cuts live to Hawaii, with Gore sitting in a hammock chair, sweaty, chest hair coming up out of a partially buttoned Hawaiian shirt.  He's got one arm around Alexandra, another holding a drink with a little umbrella.  Al's eyes are bloodshot--he's high on primo Hawaiian jungle weed.  Al gets this dopey grin on his face, and just looks right at the camara and says, "I got you, you phony redneck cowboy son of a bitch!  I finally got you!" 

Gore tips his drink to the camara, sticks his tongue in Alexandra's ear, and Bon Jovi enters the back of the screen, having made the trip to support Al, their buddy from the VP moving out party in 2001.  They strike up an acoustic version of "Wanted Dead or Alive," and the camara fades back to Russert and Brokaw.

Or Bush wins Hawaii, and I pass out on the bar floor until 2008.

Last night, I drove two and a half hours out to Fort Riley, somewhere between Manhattan and Salina, Kansas—an empty expanse of prairie grass and gentle hills; Dorothy’s farm, if you will.  Kansas is psychological territory—when you drive across it at night, it gives you nightmares.  You can scream and not be heard; then the mind starts to scream out. Drive across Kansas and you begin to imagine Oz.  The “Portal to Hell” is just a few miles outside of Kansas, a haunted church so notorious the Pope asked not to fly over Kansas on his visit ten years ago.  This was the place of the Clutter murders of In Cold Blood.  Dodge City.  You tread carefully in Kansas.

I went because a guy I know had just been called to Iraq from the Kansas National Guard.  He's 42 years old, been in training for three whole weeks, and they're just shipping him off to Iraq.  He signed up for the Guard in his middle thirties, like many of his unit-mates did, to do the things the National Guard usually do—disaster relief, etc.  He felt he could handle one weekend a month, two weeks out of the year.  He signed up because he needed money to go back to school as a non-traditional student.  Now he's headed to Iraq for two years, held past his term of service, which was supposed to expire two days ago.  And he's about the median age of the men and women in his unit.  This is the backdoor draft John Kerry talks about.  I saw it firsthand.

At the rally, I listened to the Commander in Chief of the Kansas Guard, Governor Kathleen Sebelius, give a great speech about the old story in which three men are asked what they're doing:  The first says "laying bricks," the second says, "building a wall," the third says "building a castle."  Governor Sebelius is a Democrat, believe it or not, in one of the five most Republican states in the Nation.  She never had to take a position on the war, and Kansas' lone Democratic congressman, Dennis Moore, voted for it.  No matter what you say about that vote one way or the other, they both sure as hell have fought to improve conditions for the families at home and for benefits for Kansas troops abroad.  Sebelius has increased funding for families at home, and Dennis Moore sponsored a bill to pay for troops’ travel expenses home.  That’s what matters most now.    

Some on both sides might call this flip-floppery, but Saturday night convinced me of one thing beyond all else:  It's possible to love the soldiers but hate Bush's decision to take us to war.  It’s our responsibility to see this thing through to the end, to win the peace in Iraq and Afghanistan, and to take care of the people called to this war in whatever ways we can.  And for nobodys like us, you just do what you can in the small ways that make a difference.  Governor Sebelius and Congressman Moore will do all they can, just as their Republican colleagues will—and that means being fiscally responsible in how we distribute funds, too.  Fighting Halliburton is not hating America.  Voting against porked-up military spending bills is not depriving soldiers of body armor.  Just like the soldiers, America only has so many resources, and we have to take care of what we have.  And that means not spending more money on missile defense and nuclear bombs while the Kansas National Guard is underpaid and underequipped.     

As I stood there in the cavernous hanger of Fort Riley, watching the middle aged men and women of the Kansas National Guard stand at attention, preparing to leave for Iraq for two years, I became greatly conflicted.  Rarely have I ever felt more allegiance to that flag that hung behind those men and women, and yet, I felt angrier about this war than I ever had before.  I can’t believe Bush is virtually conscripting the National Guard into this war they didn’t sign up for and aren’t equipped for.  As Governor Sebelius told us, the cliché is true:  We have to support those building that cathedral of a democratic Iraq.  The argument has to be about how we get that done, because there’s no coming home now.  At least, for the last regiment of the Kansas National Guard, for another two years.  For now, I’m voting for John Kerry and just trying to help out the troops I know who have left families and homes behind.  That’s the difference between us and them, by which I mean Democrats and Republicans.  They are about ideals, and we’re about people.  The Republicans committed us to this ideal, and now it’s the Democrats’ turn to worry about the people getting it done. 

Last week, Justice Clarence Thomas spent a couple days at the University of Kansas law school.  Our dean was one of his first clerks, so Thomas comes back every year or so, and when he does, he often teaches classes and holds forums with students.  On Thursday, the Honorable Justice took over our 1L Lawyering class.

Thomas is ultra-conservative; we all know that.  He went with Bush in Bush v. Gore. He gets accused of being Scalia's puppet, which I think is a little unfair.  They are brothers in ideology, but political ideology simply doesn't enter into a lot of Supreme Court decisions.  Still, for the Lefties among us, many of Thomas' decisions are quite bewildering.  For the more screeching of my liberal friends, Clarence Thomas is THE ENEMY.

I don't like a lot of Thomas' stances, but I have to admit that I like Clarence Thomas the man.  He commands the room with a giant, almost cartoonishly round gut and a deep, booming voice--like Chef from South Park, but more thundering.  He has large, bulging eyes that lock onto you--when the Justice is talking to you, you listen.  Thomas laughs like a fairy tale villian, this giant "WHA HA HA HA!" bellow that seems mocks people's perceptions of him--if you think he's evil, Clarence Thomas is more than willing to let you think it.  Hell, he *encourages* it.  When you ask him a question, he wanders over to you with this stilted, straight-legged waddle, thrusts his gut out, locks on with those eyes, and answers in this thunderous boom that definitely comes from upon high.

Thomas spoke for a half hour about writing legal briefs ("concise and clear!"  "the first draft is a lump of clay"--that kind of thing).  Then the good Justice opened the floor for questions.  Of course, the liberals all wanted to take their shots at him, and I know some of my friends talked a lot of shit before class--but the fact is that you're completely outmatched by the Justice.  Not only is he the smartest person you've ever encountered, he's damn scary.  Clarence Thomas would rip your arms off, beat you with them, and then eat them.  And then do that thunderous gut laugh.

Of course, they're not allowed to talk about pending or possible cases, but that didn't stop somebody (not me) from asking about Colorado Amendment 36--the amendment to divvy Colorado's electoral votes proportionally, giving Kerry four extra votes when he loses CO on election day.  I think it's a shady deal, but it could turn the election to Kerry if he loses Hawaii or New Hampshire.  Anyway, here's a preview of the Supreme Court ruling in Bush v. Kerry over the Colorado amendment, if it passes:

Whiny Liberal KU Law Student (again, not me): "How does the Court determine electoral issues?"  (Subtext:  "How are you going to vote on Bush v. Kerry?"

Justice Clarence Thomas:  "It's really hard to say unless we're faced with a specific case."  ("You know I can't talk about that, jackass.")

WLKULS:  "What sorts of instruments does the Court use--are these entirely Constitutional questions?"  ("C'mon Clarence, we know how you're going to vote, we just want to hear you say it.")

Justice Clarence Thomas:  "Well, look, all I know is that the state legislature is the only body that can determine how electoral voters are elected."  ("Alright, jackass--I'm going to vote to overturn the referendum on the grounds that it's unconstitutional, ok?")

If it makes you feel better, use this article about Justice Thomas' opinion in United States v. Playboy Entertainment Group, in which the Justice voted to invalidate a congressional statute that required cable stations to scramble "adult entertainment" programs except late at night.  Insert your own Anita Hill-related jokes.

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Initial reactions:

First off, who the f*@# are the "Moo-lahs"?!?

Second, Bush did worse than Gore on all those "style" things.

Third, substance clearly went to Kerry, even on North Korea.  We have to be more aggressive in our dealings with Kim Jong Il, especially after Team America: World Police comes out.  If played consistently to the internationalist theme, Kerry's can draw the Chinese and the South Koreans into joining the negotiations more aggressively, rather than just stall, as BushCo has done.

I haven't felt good about this campaign in some time.  I felt like I was justifying a distant, passive-aggressive girlfriend when I defended Kerry. 
Now, I feel really good about it.  I want to take her out, show her off a little.  Dress up and hit the town with this campaign, you know?

-----shimes