I blow at least two hours everyday checking and double checking every poll and every electoral college map I can find.  And this is what I've come up with.  There are only eight states that are legitimately in play:  New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico.  From this premise, I've developed the Kerry Victory Matrix, a handy chronological outline that will help you follow the night's events with certainty.  And I spent a little too much time at http://www.november2004.com" title="http://www.november2004.com" target="_blank"http://www.november2004.com

Ok, here we go:

First Round of Results:  Eastern Time Zone States (results at 7:0 0 CST)

1.  Kerry must win New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.  If he loses any of those, it's probably over.

2.  If he accomplishes this, look to Florida.  Florida is Bush's only real threshold state.  If Bush loses Florida, it's probably over.  If Bush somehow loses Virginia or any Southern state, it's going to be a Kerry blowout.

3.  Next, look to Ohio.  If Kerry loses Ohio and Florida, it's over.

Second Round of Results:  Central Time Zone States (results at 8:0 0 CST)

1.  Look to Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Kerry must win both of these.  Minnesota looks pretty solid for Kerry, but Wisconsin is going to be much closer.  In fact, this whole election probably rides on Wisconsin.  If Kerry wins Wisconsin, he'll be at 264 (including Washington, Oregon, and California), needing only six votes to take the election.

2.  Look to Iowa.  If Kerry wins Iowa and sweeps the Old Northwest, it's over.

Third Round of Results:  Mountain Time Zone States (results at 9:00 CST)

1.  If the polls hold up and Minnesota and Wisconsin go to Kerry, and Iowa goes to Bush, then look back to New Hampshire.  If Kerry won New Hampshire, he needs just New Mexico to win.  If Kerry lost New Hampshire, he needs: (only Iowa), or he needs (New Mexico plus four more votes).  Kerry should win New Hampshire, so we'll probably just need two more votes.

Fourth Round of Results:  Pacific Time Zone States (results at 10:00 CST)

1.  If Washington, Oregon, and California all break for Kerry, you may think it's over.  But it's not:  Assuming Kerry wins New Hampshire but loses New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa, he still needs another state. 

Aha, there's still Alaska and Hawaii!  Gore won Hawaii by 18 points in 2000!  Party time!

But hold on.  I said there were *eight* states still in play.  A poll last month had Kerry up ten in Hawaii.  But two recent polls have Bush up one---in Hawaii!

This is The Aloha Nightmare. 

Kerry needs just two more electoral votes, and Hawaii is a Democratic stronghold.  But there we'll be, on the cusp of felling the Republican Beast Elephant...and then have to wait another two hours on what should have been, in the words of George Tenet, a slam dunk.  When I first developed the Kerry Victory Matrix a couple weeks ago, I thought that this two hour period would be the Hawaii Dream, where I was going to hand out a bunch of leis, order some mixed drinks with little umbrellas, and just enjoy the moment--let the agony of the last four years melt away in a soft, warm, gentle buzz of rum and fruit juice.

But if the polls stay true, we're going to have to sit there until:

Fifth Round of Results:  The Aloha Nightmare at Midnight

Two hours of tears, pain, hope, fear, apprehension, and above all else, heavy drinking.  I already know I'm not going to be able to take it.  I'm just going to pace and drink for two hours.  Every Democrat in America is going to pace and drink (except for our hippie friends, who will already be high). 

The campaigns are already aware of The Aloha Nightmare.  Dick Cheney rallied in Hawaii last Friday--that's an exceptional trip, but that's how important this state is going to be. 

Not to be outdone, the Democrats are on the case.  And this is where it gets interesting.  Al Gore and Alexandra Kerry are headed to Hawaii to shore up support.  Imagine this scene:  Kerry 268, Bush 266, with Hawaii left to go.  Russert's hands are blue and red with dry erase marker from all the crossing out and erasing.  The clock strikes midnight.  We wait for another hour or so.  Russert's eyes bug out of his head.  Cut from commercial, and Russert has his hands around Brokaw's neck, threatening to kill him for leaving him with Brian Williams for the next six elections. 

Then, everything stops:  Cut to graphic, and Hawaii turns blue, Kerry wins the election.  NBC cuts live to Hawaii, with Gore sitting in a hammock chair, sweaty, chest hair coming up out of a partially buttoned Hawaiian shirt.  He's got one arm around Alexandra, another holding a drink with a little umbrella.  Al's eyes are bloodshot--he's high on primo Hawaiian jungle weed.  Al gets this dopey grin on his face, and just looks right at the camara and says, "I got you, you phony redneck cowboy son of a bitch!  I finally got you!" 

Gore tips his drink to the camara, sticks his tongue in Alexandra's ear, and Bon Jovi enters the back of the screen, having made the trip to support Al, their buddy from the VP moving out party in 2001.  They strike up an acoustic version of "Wanted Dead or Alive," and the camara fades back to Russert and Brokaw.

Or Bush wins Hawaii, and I pass out on the bar floor until 2008.